Sent communication to our contacts on Monday after I read the Newsweek article. Well, now the Statesman has jumped on board. I don’t love alarmist “reporting” that does not offer an accurate view of what is going on. The metrics they offer are not comparing apples to apples – seasonally adjusted numbers using a smaller time frame vs. a true long-range 365-day view, which shows the trajectory of the market.
If reporting accurately – this is what would be reported: The market has adjusted from its peak and now appears to be stabilizing. The market is currently following 2021 trendlines (see data below).
Meanwhile – buyer demand is still strong. Have multiple offers on listing right now and participated in a multiple offer situation for a buyer…TODAY.
With that – I shared the below data directly with our clients and contacts. This is the average sales price data for Travis and Williamson Counties. Hope this is helpful – and if you’d like specific information for yourself – whether you’re buying or selling, just drop me a line.
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I think that the story Newsweek is old…the market has largely already adjusted. They’re late to the game.
Also the author offers up the biggest Covid Boom cities and comparing that adjustment against the average as the warning bell. Lazy reporting in my opinion to get eyes the story.
All of that said, and kicking my opinions to the side, let’s look at the data.
Has the market adjusted off the peak values and in light of the increased interest rates? It has, it had to. For each point that the interest rates go up, general rule of thumb is that buyers adjust their purchasing power by 9-11%. Interest rates have adjusted up from 3.22% to 6.8% today. These increases have removed some buyers from the market, caused some to adjust their purchasing expectations, and have some resale sellers sitting on the sidelines.
And has the market adjusted that far before beginning to tick back up? It has not. I mean if you look at traditional wisdom with the interest rates, we’d be looking at a ~30% adjustment…
Beyond all of this – the pricing trajectory appears to be plateauing. Take a look at the trend for this year (these are for SFR both new and resale, ABOR MLS data utilized):
Travis County:
- Jan 2023: $675,877
- Mar 2023: $700,357
- May 2023: $766,623
Williamson County:
- Jan 2023: $488,738
- Mar 2023: $496,904
- May 2023: $510,341
Let’s get a broader perspective on the market and look at historic average sale prices over the last 5 years. This data is for single family homes, both new and resale properties, again pulled from ABOR MLS data.
I’ve provided some cities below – if you’d like a specific area – let me know, happy to provide. We all know that there are certain neighborhoods, zip codes, streets that will under or overperform in every market.
FIVE YEAR AVERAGE SALES PRICE:
Round Rock:
- 2019 Average Sale Price: $314, 306
- 2020 Average Sale Price: $343,257
- 2021 Average Sale Price: $495,324
- 2022 Average Sale Price: $550, 248
- 2023 Average Sale Price: $502,041
Georgetown:
- 2019 Average Sale Price: $341,824
- 2020 Average Sale Price: $368,731
- 2021 Average Sale Price: $497,250
- 2022 Average Sale Price: $563,762
- 2023 Average Sale Price: $515,097
Austin:
- 2019 Average Sale Price: $522,967
- 2020 Average Sale Price: $600.853
- 2021 Average Sale Price: $770,117
- 2022 Average Sale Price: $840.207
- 2023 Average Sale Price: $791,185
Cedar Park:
- 2019 Average Sale Price: $364,143
- 2020 Average Sale Price: $394,168
- 2021 Average Sale Price: $567,312
- 2022 Average Sale Price: $644,188
- 2023 Average Sale Price: $582,893
Hutto:
- 2019 Average Sale Price: $252,956
- 2020 Average Sale Price: $274,956
- 2021 Average Sale Price: $387,877
- 2022 Average Sale Price: $441,912
- 2023 Average Sale Price: $397,297
Pflugerville:
- 2019 Average Sale Price: $286,127
- 2020 Average Sale Price: $316,655
- 2021 Average Sale Price: $440,738
- 2022 Average Sale Price: $508,206
- 2023 Average Sale Price: $443,766
Hope you’ll forgive the data dump and formatting. Wanted to get this information out asap.
As always – here to help! Let me know if there’s anything you, friends, family or co-workers need. And remember – I am networked around the country. If you or someone you know is making a move I can put you in touch with a true professional.
Kiersty