Let’s explore market trends and opportunities in Williamson County’s largest communities. In a previous update, we spoke about the SAFE ZONE (Figure D). Current data suggests that the real estate market is stabilizing rapidly. Supply is holding steady and increasing marginally in some segments of the market, giving buyers enough purchasing options to negotiate incentives such as closing cost assistance or interest rate buy-downs in many cases. This is evidenced by the average closed / original lists price ratios depicted in the graphics below.
Round Rock hit its lowest off-peak median price in February at $402,500. The median price is currently $415,000. A decline off a seasonal bump in early spring of approximately $440,000 for March through May. Housing inventory increased slightly from 2.7 months’ supply in June to 3.1 months’ supply for July. These are very low supply levels compared to the 5-6 months’ supply that represents a “balanced” market.
Georgetown hit its lowest off-peak median price in March, coming in just under the January 2023 low of $402,000. Median prices in February saw a spike to $450,000, which was driven by a large number of luxury home sales. April saw the median price moderate to a more palatable $409,990 and has held study at $409,000 – $410,000 since. Housing inventory has increased slightly from 3.1 months’ supply in recent months to 3.5 months’ supply for July giving buyers more options to choose from and better negotiation leverage.
Cedar Park hit its lowest off-peak median price in January. February saw an increase to $447,000 while March saw a major spike to $525,000 followed by a jump in April to $550,000. The March and April spikes were driven by a disproportionate percentage (42.9% and 43.8 respectively) of the home sales being between $500K – $749K. The median price moderated slightly for July to continue to $501,750. Housing inventory has risen slightly to 2.0 months’ supply up from 1.9 months for June.
Diverse housing stock is responsible for the wild swings in Cedar Park. At the 2022 peak, only 1.1% of the sales were between $300K – $399K. By contrast, the January low saw 35.5% of sales between $300K – $399K and 22.6% between $500K – $749K. June saw 22.1% of sales between $300-399K and 42.7% between $500-749K.
Leander hit its lowest off-peak median price in July at $459,130. Housing inventory decreased slightly from 2.5 months supply in June to 2.4 months supply in July. These are very lowlevels compared to the 5-6 months supply that represents a “balanced” market. This should help maintain a steady median price over the coming months.
Hutto also hit its lowest off-peak median price in April, coming in at $355,000. Housing inventory showed a slight increase in July to a still low 1.9 months supply, up from 1.8 in June. While inventory levels are improving marginally, we would expect many listings to be entertaining multiple offers.
Taylor hit its initial lowest off-peak median price in March followed by a big bounce in April to $373,500. The bounce was driven by a high concentration of sales in the $300K – $399K range. April saw 72.2% of sales at this price point vs. 47.1% in March. July saw a new off peak low at $302,550. This was likely driven by builder adjustments in their offerings to be more reflective of the current market conditions.
Taylor and Hutto remain positioned well for growth. The industrial development in the area including Samsung and others will fuel strong demand in eastern Williamson County for years to come. Supply levels in Taylor are a healthy 3.0 months of housing inventory up slightly from 2.8 months in May.
Pflugerville found its lowest off-peak median price in March at $394,000. The median price has since rebounded to $425,000. We did see a slight inventory decline from 3.0 months supply in June to 2.5 months in July. Expect the absolute best priced and conditioned properties may have less wiggle room for negotiation as inventory tightens
Conclusion: Overall inventories remain stable, while demand lingers well below pre-pandemic norms. Low inventory levels are keeping prices stable yet some seasonal dips in pricing are expected as we exit the spring/summer selling season. There is a window of opportunity available today to negotiate better terms as well as access to more choices. That window may close by the time we approach next spring’s expected seasonal upswing.
Although prices are down from the peaks, there is still room for sellers to realize the tremendous equity gains made since January 2020.
Data Source: Texas A&M Real Estate Research Center and Austin Board of Realtors
The material contained in this newsletter has been prepared by an independent third-party provider. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee it is without errors.
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